Monday, January 16, 2012

East: In-depth Prediction Review

After reviewing my team predictions for the 2011-2012 season, I thought it was fitting to also analyze my individual predictions halfway through the season. Here we go (I've put the most significant statistic in parentheses). There is a key at the bottom if you have trouble with the abbrevs.

Washington Capitals 
Expected Performers: Vokoun (.911 SVP), Backstrom (42 P), Ovechkin (35 P)
Supporting: Laich (23 P), Brouwer (23 P), Johansson (26 P)
Stable Pieces: Ward (13 P), Halpern (12 P), Hamrlik (19:33 ATOI)
Surprise: Alzner (+11)
Prediction Score: B+

Karl Alzner has been a nice surprise with a team-high positive-11, but Dennis Wideman has had an absolutely tremendous season with 31 points in 43 games. He's also averaging 24:14 of ice time per game. Wow. I forgot to include Semin in my predictions. Hmmm...strange coincidence.

Pittsburgh Penguins 
Expected Performers: Crosby (1.5 P/G), Malkin (51 P), Letang (26:10 ATOI)
Supporting Performers: Staal (20:23 ATOI), Sullivan (22 P), Neal (40P)
Stable Pieces: Orpik (127 H), Fleury (21 W)
Surprise: Kennedy (20 P)
Prediction Score: B

Chris Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis are having exceptional years for the Penguins, not Tyler Kennedy. Paul Martin was overlooked. He plays a ton of minutes. Overall however, the pieces were listed.

Boston Bruins 
Expected Performers: Thomas (.937 SVP), Chara (+27), Krejci (33 P)
Supporting Performers: Marchand (+27), Bergeron (37 P), Lucic (34 P)
Stable Pieces: Seidenberg (23:49 ATOI), Kelly (23 P), Peverley (29 P)
Surprise: Seguin (38 P, +34)
Prediction Score: B+

The fact that I somehow left out Nathan Horton was compensated by the surprise of Tyler Seguin. Other than that, everything is pretty much in place. Tuukka Rask has been phenomenal as well.

Philadelphia Flyers
Expected Performers: Bryzgalov (16 W), Giroux (49 P), van Riemsdyk (22 P), Briere (29 P)
Supporting Performers: Hartnell (38 P), Jagr (32 P), Voracek (26 P)
Stable Pieces: Talbot (3:51 SH ATOI), Simmonds (23 P), Pronger (Injured)
Surprises: Nodl (N/A), Schenn (3 P)
Prediction Score: C-

My surprises were way off. Matt Read has definitely been the team's biggest fortune. Ilya Brygalov has struggled while James vsn Riemsdyk is underachieving. Meanwhile, the supporters are outscoring the expected performers.

Buffalo Sabres 
Expected Performers: Miller (.903 SVP) , Vanek (41 P), Stafford (22 P), Ehrhoff (23:35 ATOI)
Supporting Performers: Myers (7 P), Leino (10 P), Ennis (5 P)
Stable Pieces: Regher (19:06 TOI), Pominville (44 P), Hecht (7 P)
Surprise: Gerbe (15 P)
Prediction Score D+

As a whole, the Sabres have under-performed. Ryan Miller is having a questionable season. Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville are putting up points, but no one else has stepped up. Admittedly, injuries have taken more than a few man-games away from the team, but most individuals simply aren't playing as they should.

Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected Performers: Stamkos (50 P), St. Louis (36 P), Lecavalier (24 P)
Supporting Performers: Purcell (24 P), Malone (25 P), Downie (111 PIM)
Stable Pieces: Brewer (23:17 ATOI), Roloson (.880 SVP), Thompson (3:01 SH ATOI)
Surprise: Moore (14 P)
Prediction Score: B-

All the top scorers were listed correctly, but that was an easy process. The stable pieces were fine as well, other than Dwayne Roloson who has struggled mightily. Marc-Andre Bergeron has been the surprise thus far with a positive-eight and 24 points. Honestly, the team has just stunk!

New York Rangers
Expected Performers: Lundqvist (.935 SVP), Richards (31 P), Gaborik (35 P)
Supporting Performers: Callahan (31 P), Dubinsky (21 P), Anisimov (22 P)
Stable Pieces: Staal (7 GP), Girardi (27:21 ATOI), Boyle (10 P)
Surprise: Stepan (30 P)
Prediction Score: B+

Derek Stepan has been a great performer for the Rangers but so has Michael Del Zotto with a positive-22 and 23 points. Henrik Lundqvist is carrying the team as usual. Brian Boyle hasn't been as effective as I expected, but Carl Hagelin is picking up some of that slack.

New Jersey Devils
Expected Performers: Parise (38 P), Brodeur (.894 SVP), Kovalchuk (38 P)
Supporting Performers: Elias (41 P), Zajac (8 GP), Zubrus (23 P)
Stable Pieces: Clarkson (72 PIM), Greene (9 P), Steckel (N/A)
Surprise: Larsson (21:36 ATOI)
Prediction Score: C+

Adam Henrique has been the biggest surprise this season with a positive-nine and 34 points. Martin Brodeur is struggling this season and David Steckel is no longer with the team. Travis Zajac has been injured for the majority of the year, but Petr Sykora has been a welcome addition.

Montreal Canadiens
Expected Performers: Price (.913 SVP), Cammalleri (N/A), Plekanec (31 P)
Supporting Performers: Gionta (15 P), Markov (Injured), Subban (18 P)
Stable Pieces: Gomez (5 P), Moen (15 P), Gill (17:22 ATOI)
Surprise: Cole - if healthy (33 P)
Predictions Score: C

Despite the team being atrocious, Carey Price is having another strong season. Scott Gomez is the laughingstock of the league. Mike Cammalleri is on another team. Erik Cole has been a nice addition, but the real surprise has been David Desharnais with a positive-eight and 31 points. I also didn't list Max Pacioretty - shameful.

Winnipeg Jets
Expected Performers: Ladd (21 P), Byfuglien (24 P), Little (21 P)
Supporting Performers: Enstrom (23:54 ATOI), Antropov (20 P), Kane (31 P), Pavelec (.910 SVP)
Stable Pieces: Fehr (2 P), Hainsey (21:01 ATOI)
Surprise: Wheeler (32 P)
Prediction Score: B-

Blake Wheeler has definitely been the best surprise, currently leading his team in scoring. Kyle Wellwood wasn't listed but is also having a great year. Zach Bogosian and Alexander Burmistrov have been much more stable than those predicted.

Carolina Hurricanes
Expected Performers: Staal (34 P), Ward (16 W), Skinner (24 P)
Supporting Performers: Pitkanen (22:35 ATOI), Kaberle (N/A), Sutter (19 P)
Stable Pieces: Larose (21 P), Ruutu (26 P)
Surprise: Jokinen (24 P)
Prediction Score: B

Jussi Jokinen has been decent, but I would say the biggest surprise thus far is Jay Harrison with a career-high 18 points already. Justin Faulk is solidifying himself as a stable NHL player as well, eating up a lot of minutes. Overall however, another crappy season for the 'Canes.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected Performers: Kessel (48 P), MacArthur (21 P), Connolly (22 P)
Supporting Performers: Phaneuf (25:15 ATOI), Reimer (3.01 GAA), Lupul (47 P), Liles (21 P)
Stable Pieces: Lombardi (7 P), Grabovski (26 P), Kulimen (18 P)
Surprises: Bozak (25 P), Franson (12 P)
Prediction Score: B-

All the major players are listed, but I think Jonas Gustavsson has been the biggest surprise for the Leafs with 13 wins. Luke Schenn is another important piece I failed to mention. Tisk, tisk. Toronto is enjoying a decent season thus far.

Florida Panthers
Expected Performers: Fleischmann (34 P), Weiss (33 P), Booth (N/A)
Supporting Performers: Upshall (15 GP), Campbell (33 P)
Stable Pieces: Kopecky (17 P), Jovonaovski (8 P), Goc (2:31 SH ATOI)
Surprise: Bergenheim (7 P)
Prediction Score: C-

Although most of the top scorers are listed above, there were too many others left out. Dmitry Kulikov, Jason Garrison and Kris Versteeg are all having fantastic seasons for the Panthers this year. Shawn Matthias is turning into quite the power forward as well. I owe an apology to Jose Theodore.

New York Islanders
Expected Performers: Grabner (20 P), Tavares (43 P), Moulson(+9, 40 P), Streit (23:29 ATOI)
Supporting Performers: Comeau (N/A), Okposo (22 P)
Stable Pieces: Reasoner (-16), Rolston (8 P), Jurcina (-19)
Surprise: Nielsen (20 P)
Prediction Score: C

Most of the top performers are there, but PA Parenteau has been the team's biggest surprise. It's just another awful season for this franchise. They have had five different starting goaltenders. Eeek.

Ottawa Senators
Expected Performers: Anderson (23 W), Spezza (47 P), Alfredsson (33 P)
Supporting Performers: Gonchar (24 P), Michalek (31 P), Regin (4 P)
Stable Pieces: Philips (19:18 ATOI), Neil (82 PIM)
Surprise: Butler (9 P)
Prediction Score: C

The Senators have exceeded all expectations halfway through the season. The fact that I left Erik Karlsson out of this mix is unforgivable. He, Nick Foligno and Colin Greening have all been valuable contributors. Filip Kuba has been very stable on the back-end.

Key:
P = Points
ATOI = Average time on ice
PIM = Penalties in minutes
SH = Shorthanded
W = Wins
SVP = Save percentage
N/A = Not applicable/Not on team
GP = Games played
P/G = Points per game
H = Hits

The West tomorrow!

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