East: In-depth Prediction Review

After reviewing my team predictions for the 2011-2012 season, I thought it was fitting to also analyze my individual predictions halfway through the season. Here we go (I've put the most significant statistic in parentheses). There is a key at the bottom if you have trouble with the abbrevs.

Washington Capitals 

Expected Performers: Vokoun (.911 SVP), Backstrom (42 P), Ovechkin (35 P)

Supporting: Laich (23 P), Brouwer (23 P), Johansson (26 P)

Stable Pieces: Ward (13 P), Halpern (12 P), Hamrlik (19:33 ATOI)

Surprise: Alzner (+11)

Prediction Score: B+

Karl Alzner has been a nice surprise with a team-high positive-11, but Dennis Wideman has had an absolutely tremendous season with 31 points in 43 games. He's also averaging 24:14 of ice time per game. Wow. I forgot to include Semin in my predictions. Hmmm...strange coincidence.

Pittsburgh Penguins 

Expected Performers: Crosby (1.5 P/G), Malkin (51 P), Letang (26:10 ATOI)
Supporting Performers: Staal (20:23 ATOI), Sullivan (22 P), Neal (40P)
Stable Pieces: Orpik (127 H), Fleury (21 W)

Surprise: Kennedy (20 P)

Prediction Score: B

Chris Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis are having exceptional years for the Penguins, not Tyler Kennedy. Paul Martin was overlooked. He plays a ton of minutes. Overall however, the pieces were listed.

Boston Bruins 

Expected Performers: Thomas (.937 SVP), Chara (+27), Krejci (33 P)

Supporting Performers: Marchand (+27), Bergeron (37 P), Lucic (34 P)

Stable Pieces: Seidenberg (23:49 ATOI), Kelly (23 P), Peverley (29 P)

Surprise: Seguin (38 P, +34)

Prediction Score: B+

The fact that I somehow left out Nathan Horton was compensated by the surprise of Tyler Seguin. Other than that, everything is pretty much in place. Tuukka Rask has been phenomenal as well.

Philadelphia Flyers

Expected Performers: Bryzgalov (16 W), Giroux (49 P), van Riemsdyk (22 P), Briere (29 P)

Supporting Performers: Hartnell (38 P), Jagr (32 P), Voracek (26 P)

Stable Pieces: Talbot (3:51 SH ATOI), Simmonds (23 P), Pronger (Injured)

Surprises: Nodl (N/A), Schenn (3 P)

Prediction Score: C-

My surprises were way off. Matt Read has definitely been the team's biggest fortune. Ilya Brygalov has struggled while James vsn Riemsdyk is underachieving. Meanwhile, the supporters are outscoring the expected performers.

Buffalo Sabres 

Expected Performers: Miller (.903 SVP) , Vanek (41 P), Stafford (22 P), Ehrhoff (23:35 ATOI)

Supporting Performers: Myers (7 P), Leino (10 P), Ennis (5 P)

Stable Pieces: Regher (19:06 TOI), Pominville (44 P), Hecht (7 P)

Surprise: Gerbe (15 P)

Prediction Score D+

As a whole, the Sabres have under-performed. Ryan Miller is having a questionable season. Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville are putting up points, but no one else has stepped up. Admittedly, injuries have taken more than a few man-games away from the team, but most individuals simply aren't playing as they should.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected Performers: Stamkos (50 P), St. Louis (36 P), Lecavalier (24 P)

Supporting Performers: Purcell (24 P), Malone (25 P), Downie (111 PIM)

Stable Pieces: Brewer (23:17 ATOI), Roloson (.880 SVP), Thompson (3:01 SH ATOI)

Surprise: Moore (14 P)

Prediction Score: B-

All the top scorers were listed correctly, but that was an easy process. The stable pieces were fine as well, other than Dwayne Roloson who has struggled mightily. Marc-Andre Bergeron has been the surprise thus far with a positive-eight and 24 points. Honestly, the team has just stunk!

New York Rangers

Expected Performers: Lundqvist (.935 SVP), Richards (31 P), Gaborik (35 P)

Supporting Performers: Callahan (31 P), Dubinsky (21 P), Anisimov (22 P)

Stable Pieces: Staal (7 GP), Girardi (27:21 ATOI), Boyle (10 P)

Surprise: Stepan (30 P)

Prediction Score: B+

Derek Stepan has been a great performer for the Rangers but so has Michael Del Zotto with a positive-22 and 23 points. Henrik Lundqvist is carrying the team as usual. Brian Boyle hasn't been as effective as I expected, but Carl Hagelin is picking up some of that slack.

New Jersey Devils

Expected Performers: Parise (38 P), Brodeur (.894 SVP), Kovalchuk (38 P)

Supporting Performers: Elias (41 P), Zajac (8 GP), Zubrus (23 P)

Stable Pieces: Clarkson (72 PIM), Greene (9 P), Steckel (N/A)

Surprise: Larsson (21:36 ATOI)

Prediction Score: C+

Adam Henrique has been the biggest surprise this season with a positive-nine and 34 points. Martin Brodeur is struggling this season and David Steckel is no longer with the team. Travis Zajac has been injured for the majority of the year, but Petr Sykora has been a welcome addition.

Montreal Canadiens

Expected Performers: Price (.913 SVP), Cammalleri (N/A), Plekanec (31 P)

Supporting Performers: Gionta (15 P), Markov (Injured), Subban (18 P)

Stable Pieces: Gomez (5 P), Moen (15 P), Gill (17:22 ATOI)

Surprise: Cole - if healthy (33 P)

Predictions Score: C

Despite the team being atrocious, Carey Price is having another strong season. Scott Gomez is the laughingstock of the league. Mike Cammalleri is on another team. Erik Cole has been a nice addition, but the real surprise has been David Desharnais with a positive-eight and 31 points. I also didn't list Max Pacioretty - shameful.

Winnipeg Jets

Expected Performers: Ladd (21 P), Byfuglien (24 P), Little (21 P)

Supporting Performers: Enstrom (23:54 ATOI), Antropov (20 P), Kane (31 P), Pavelec (.910 SVP)

Stable Pieces: Fehr (2 P), Hainsey (21:01 ATOI)
Surprise: Wheeler (32 P)

Prediction Score: B-

Blake Wheeler has definitely been the best surprise, currently leading his team in scoring. Kyle Wellwood wasn't listed but is also having a great year. Zach Bogosian and Alexander Burmistrov have been much more stable than those predicted.

Carolina Hurricanes

Expected Performers: Staal (34 P), Ward (16 W), Skinner (24 P)

Supporting Performers: Pitkanen (22:35 ATOI), Kaberle (N/A), Sutter (19 P)

Stable Pieces: Larose (21 P), Ruutu (26 P)
Surprise: Jokinen (24 P)

Prediction Score: B

Jussi Jokinen has been decent, but I would say the biggest surprise thus far is Jay Harrison with a career-high 18 points already. Justin Faulk is solidifying himself as a stable NHL player as well, eating up a lot of minutes. Overall however, another crappy season for the 'Canes.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected Performers: Kessel (48 P), MacArthur (21 P), Connolly (22 P)

Supporting Performers: Phaneuf (25:15 ATOI), Reimer (3.01 GAA), Lupul (47 P), Liles (21 P)

Stable Pieces: Lombardi (7 P), Grabovski (26 P), Kulimen (18 P)

Surprises: Bozak (25 P), Franson (12 P)

Prediction Score: B-

All the major players are listed, but I think Jonas Gustavsson has been the biggest surprise for the Leafs with 13 wins. Luke Schenn is another important piece I failed to mention. Tisk, tisk. Toronto is enjoying a decent season thus far.

Florida Panthers

Expected Performers: Fleischmann (34 P), Weiss (33 P), Booth (N/A)

Supporting Performers: Upshall (15 GP), Campbell (33 P)

Stable Pieces: Kopecky (17 P), Jovonaovski (8 P), Goc (2:31 SH ATOI)

Surprise: Bergenheim (7 P)

Prediction Score: C-

Although most of the top scorers are listed above, there were too many others left out. Dmitry Kulikov, Jason Garrison and Kris Versteeg are all having fantastic seasons for the Panthers this year. Shawn Matthias is turning into quite the power forward as well. I owe an apology to Jose Theodore.

New York Islanders

Expected Performers: Grabner (20 P), Tavares (43 P), Moulson(+9, 40 P), Streit (23:29 ATOI)

Supporting Performers: Comeau (N/A), Okposo (22 P)

Stable Pieces: Reasoner (-16), Rolston (8 P), Jurcina (-19)

Surprise: Nielsen (20 P)

Prediction Score: C

Most of the top performers are there, but PA Parenteau has been the team's biggest surprise. It's just another awful season for this franchise. They have had five different starting goaltenders. Eeek.

Ottawa Senators

Expected Performers: Anderson (23 W), Spezza (47 P), Alfredsson (33 P)

Supporting Performers: Gonchar (24 P), Michalek (31 P), Regin (4 P)

Stable Pieces: Philips (19:18 ATOI), Neil (82 PIM)

Surprise: Butler (9 P)

Prediction Score: C

The Senators have exceeded all expectations halfway through the season. The fact that I left Erik Karlsson out of this mix is unforgivable. He, Nick Foligno and Colin Greening have all been valuable contributors. Filip Kuba has been very stable on the back-end.

Key:

P = Points

ATOI = Average time on ice

PIM = Penalties in minutes

SH = Shorthanded

W = Wins

SVP = Save percentage

N/A = Not applicable/Not on team

GP = Games played

P/G = Points per game

H = Hits

The West tomorrow!

Mid-season Review

Once again, I was way off.

Eastern Conference:

Number Correct: 1/15

Playoff Teams Predicted: 5/8

Biggest Disappointment: Tampa Bay Lightning

Biggest Surprise: Florida Panthers & Ottawa Senators

Western Conference:

Number Correct: 1/15
Playoff Teams Predicted: 5/8
Biggest Disappointment: Anaheim Ducks
Biggest Surprise: St. Louis Blues

Individual Leaders:
Goals - Steven Stamkos (28)
Assists - Henrik Sedin (38)
Points -  Henrik Sedin  (49)
Plus/Minus - Tyler Seguin (+32)

Power Play Goals - James Neal (10)*

Shots - James Neal (165)*

Rookie Points: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (35)*

Time On Ice Per Game - Dan Girardi (27:19)*

Wins - Jimmy Howard (24)

Goals Against Average - Tuukka Rask (1.49)

Save Percentage -  Tuukka Rask  (.949)

Team Leaders:

Points - New York Rangers (56)

Goals Per Game - Boston Bruins (3.63)

Goals Against Per Game -  Boston Bruins  (1.90)

Power Play Percentage - Vancouver Canucks (24.4)*

Penalty Kill Percentage - New Jersey Devils (91.2)

Shots Per Game - San Jose Sharks (34.9)

Shots Against Per Game - St. Louis Blues (26.6)*

Face Off Percentage - Boston Bruins (55.9)*

*Led at quarter-season review as well

Press Box 1/7/12

I obviously came to the First Niagara Center as soon as I could (5:00PM), asking for directions the entire way. I picked up my credentials, rode the press box elevator and picked up a dictionary-sized stack of statistics. I now know how Harry Neale and Rick Jeanneret spew interesting facts throughout the game. They're laid out for them in perfect fashion. Kudos to whoever does the digging on this:

Wonderful!

After gathering the stats, I found my place amongst fellow bloggers, passing Kevin Weekes along the way (#NBD). Shout out to @thehosers! A great Sabre blog. Check it out...NOW! Here was my view:

Not bad, right?

The temperature up there however...quite chilly. Small price to pay for glory.

As the arena began to fill, my excitement rose. I was actually watching an NHL game from the press box. I'm sure the regulars who consistently occupy these seats are used to the privilege, but that's exactly what it is: a HUGE privilege! A completely unobstructed view coupled with complementary coffee and popcorn combine for a perfect experience. I sincerely could not have asked for more.

The arena was full and the puck dropped. Boy, those 300-level fans were loud. Even the Jets' fans! I loved it. Although the first period was a bit tame, I was very much looking forward to the second. It didn't disappoint, with five power plays and two goals. The third ended in unfavorable excitement with a tie. Overtime lasted a good minute until Johnny Oduya scored to end it.

I then made my way to Lindy Ruff's press confence downstairs. There, in a small room with maybe 20 reporters and bloggers, I sat in awe as Ruff candidly answered a few questions. The conference lasted about three and a half minutes, but it only seemed like a few seconds.

If approved, I am definitely doing this again! What a night.

Recap: Buffalo vs. Winnipeg

Recap

1st Period:

There wasn't a ton of action in the first period, but it was still exciting to watch. The period came to a close with the Sabres registering ten shots compared to the Jets' 11. The Sabres came out strong in the first few shifts, setting up shop in the Winnipeg end. After that, the game went back and forth. Buffalo was given a power play early but failed to capitalize, except on a Thomas Vanek injury - courtesy of a very hard Tyler Myers slapshot. The Jets missed their power play opportunity later in the period as well. Jhonas Enroth didn't see anything too dangerous, aside from his "hooking" penalty and a shot off the post halfway through the period. Sidenote to that penalty: Evander Kane is speedy. Seriously. Ondrej Pavelec made two tremendous glove saves the keep the Sabres off the board (at 10:58 and 7:38).

2nd Period:

The second period was much more exciting. Altogether, 53 shots had been taken by the end of the period, 24 by Buffalo and 29 from Winnipeg. Buffalo capitalized on one of their three power play chances halfway through the period. The tally came after some fantastic puck movement. Pominville's hockey sense is by far the best on the team. With 7:42 left, Pavelec made a phenomenal save on Jochen Hecht that kept Winnipeg within striking distance. The chance followed an awful turnover by the Jets in their own zone. It's important to note the save because with four seconds left in the period, Blake Wheeler tied the game on a 5-on-3 power play - great puck movement in that sequence as well. The 5-on-3 was a result of an illegal stick penatly by Jordan Leopold. Thomas Vanek was already in the box for hooking at that point.

Sidenote - Brayden McNabb made a few genius breakout passes, dominated the PK and fended off Nik Antropov 1-on-1. Not bad.

3rd Period:

The Jets started the period on the power play but couldn't produce. Four minutes into the third, Pavelec stoned Jason Pominville on the doorstep. This was another crucial moment that ultimately made a game-changing difference. With 1:45 left in the game Ville Leino scraped the puck off of Pavelec's pad and pushed it over the goal line. Boos immediately followed exuberant cheers as the goal was waived off. The whistle had already blown. The game went into a brief, one-minute overtime that finished with Johnny Oduya putting a wrist shot over Enroth's glove.

Overall, the Sabres played a much better game tonight than last night. There were fewer turnovers and odd-man rushes for the other team. The Sabres however, failed to finish on a couple good chances throughout the game. Scoring chances were passed up in favor of unnecessary setups, nets were missed and rules were forgotten.

My three stars:

1. Ondrej Pavalec

2. Brayden McNabb

3. Jhonas Enroth

Quotes from Lindy Ruff's press conference:

- "Those breaks go against you. You get some, you don't get 'em. We had opportunities though."

- "I didn't think we had very good net presence on some shots from the point."

- "The decision [to start Enroth] is just the schedule - six games in nine nights."

- "He's [Myers] been a big plus for us."

The Sabres next tilt is Tuesday in Toronto and they desperately need a win, especially against a division rival.

Buffalo vs. Winnipeg Preview

Last night, the Carolina Hurricanes outscored the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. Although the Hurricanes currently reside in the basement of the Eastern Conference, it was an almost inevitable outcome as the Sabres haven't put together consecutive wins since November 11th. Meanwhile, the Winnipeg Jets have been playing great hockey, sans their past two performances. Before those contests, the Jets were 10-3-1 in their previous 14 games.

The Sabres "welcome back" Ville Leino after a brief absence from a lower body injury. While Leino hasn't been playing at a level anywhere near anticipated, he does provide valuable minutes to a lineup that, as of late, has been depleted due to injuries (Roy, Ennis, Ehrhoff, Sekera). 

Ryan Miller will start tonight for the Sabres; Ondrej Pavelec for the Jets. Miller has struggled at times this year, but let's not forget his abilities. Vezina, anyone? I hear Sabres' fans constantly demanding a trade for Miller and one can't help but laugh. He's been the heart and soul of this team for a long while now. Maybe if he didn't experience so many odd-man rushes, there wouldn't be so many losses. Blame the team, not the goalie.

Pavelec has been excellent this season. His stats may not be jaw-dropping (14-13-5 with a 2.94 GAA), but he always gives his team a chance to win. The Jets were without Tobias Enstrom for a lengthy period of time and now Dustin Byfuglien is out with an undisclosed injury. Those are far and away their best defensemen. Despite all of this, look for another strong performance from Pavelec tonight.

Recent scoring has come from:

WPG: Blake Wheeler - 9 points in last 7 games

WPG: Tobias Enstrom - 2 points in last 3 games

BUF: Jason Pominville - 4 points in last 4 games

BUF: Jordan Leopold - 5 points in last 6 games

Players due for big games:

WPG: Nik Antropov

BUF: Luke Adam

Two incredibly important points are up for grabs and I expect both teams to be competing at a playoff-like level. Buffalo is currently three points behind Winnipeg. Winnipeg is only two points shy of the eighth seed. With the playoffs in the near future, it's never too early to start battling. Before you know it, it's March. 

Play now.

See you in the press box, kiddos.

Look for my mid-season review tomorrow!

Winter Classic Love

Sorry for the brief hiatus everyone. I was off traveling, visiting family and generally enjoying the holidays. So actually no, I'm not sorry. I am however glad to be back home writing about hockey. And is there a better way to welcome in the New Year than with the NHL's Winter Classic? I think not.

The event was so successful after its debut in 2008, an easy decision was made to make it a part of every season thereafter. At first, I was skeptical. I thought the idea of an outdoor game EVERY year would take away from its appeal. The exaggeration of one regular season game was also a concern of mine. Two points are still at stake. Let's keep it in perspective, right?

I have since changed my mind for two reasons: HBO and popularity. 

HBO's 24/7: Road to the Winter Classic is by far my favorite program on television - even if it's only four episodes a year. The show reminds me of Planet Earth, another go-to for my viewing pleasure. An inside look at what NHL players experience on a day-to-level is a dream come true for me. It's shot and narrated in a way that makes it fun for all viewers (non-hockey fans included).  The latter reason is obvious. NBC equals popularity. The Winter Classic draws an incredible audience and the more people that pay attention to hockey, the happier I am.

This year was no letdown. 

I skipped the pregame ceremonies because, well...no one wants to see Mike Milbury and Jeremy Roenick babble on camera for two hours. I'm glad Bob Costas was there to provide some sanity though. After a bland first period, the Philadelphia Flyers and New York Rangers played an exciting 40 minutes that won't soon be forgotten. The Flyers put up a two-goal lead midway through the second period. The first tally was by Brayden Schenn - his first career NHL goal. The second, a backhand snipe by Claude Giroux (#backhandswork). However, just 30 seconds later, Michael Rupp cut the lead in half. He followed it with a salute and another goal early in the third. Two and a half minutes after that, the $60 million dollar man, Brad Richards, netted the game-winner. A terrible call on Ryan McDonagh combined with a penalty shot for Danny Briere provided a perfect ending to an exciting game.

Game-changing moment: Ryan Callahan's creative, behind-the-net pass that led to the game-winning goal.

Keeping with a recurring theme in this blog: I was wrong. The Winter Classic is awesome!

Anyone else impatiently awaiting the finale of HBO's 24/7 on Wednesday?